India rising in football... or going down the drain

In four years’ time Qatar will host the FIFA World Cup and play in the showpiece football event for the first time as a host nation.

FIFA June 2018 rankings pegged them at 98 one place below India, who like Qatar have never played in the World Cup but are the FIFA rankings a true indication of the strength of a team.

Many critics say the FIFA rankings has its flaws which India has exploited to make giants leaps from 173 in March 2015 to the present 97.

It is a significant milestone in the context of Indian football. This is India’s best ranking going back over two decades, since April 1994, when they were ranked 101. India’s best ranking is 94, achieved in February 1996.

While a good FIFA ranking is a big deal for any team looking to qualify for the World Cup, the rankings system isn’t without its flaws. The formula used by football’s governing body doesn’t take into account factors like goal differential and home advantage. The points are calculated taking into account the strength of the opponent, strength of the confederation and importance of the match. A team gets zero points for a loss, no matter where they play. The rankings system has in the past inflated a team's standing on the world stage, even if they had been underperforming for a while.

It is always tricky to read too much into the FIFA rankings, which does not necessarily reflect the true potential of a team. But more often than not, a team gets harshly criticised when its ranking slides. So if India gets repeatedly panned for languishing at 173rd a couple of years ago, then it is only fair that credit is given where due. However, some restraint advised.

India is now 14th in Asia, above heavyweights like Jordan, DPR Korea and Bahrain. Does it mean India is better than these nations?

Not really. The rankings are not a true reflection of where Indian football stands in Asia.

So if the team is not as good as rankings suggest, what explains India’s rise?

The reasons for India’s surge are twofold. Every month, FIFA extends ranking points to countries depending on the outcome of the matches they play. The points are calculated on the basis of multiple parameters but the weightage for a World Cup or a continental championship qualifier is three times more than a routine friendly.

For March 2017, India earned a total of 331 points mainly because of wins over Cambodia in a friendly and Myanmar in an Asian Cup qualifier. The twin wins, rare for the national team, helped in accumulating crucial points and jump from 132 last month to 101. Results of other matches also play a role. If Bolivia hadn’t beaten Argentina last week, then India would’ve been placed at 97. Apart from this, the backroom staff of the All India Football Federation indulged in some smart number crunching, which also played a role.

What’s this ‘number crunching’?

Between September 2016 and January 2017, India jumped 23 places without even kicking a ball. Since beating higher-ranked Puerto Rico last September, India did not play a single match for almost six months until facing Cambodia. That ensured the team did not lose points, and places, while at the same time, the weightage carried forward from corresponding months in the previous years helped the team move up the rankings. It’s a loophole in the ranking system which many teams have taken advantage of – Wales, Romania and Switzerland being the most recent examples.